Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s **highest temperature on 10 August** will be the single daily maximum recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory, and this market settles on which Celsius range contains that figure once the Observatory publishes the final “Daily Extract”. In prediction-market terms, a **YES share** pays out if the event matches the listed outcome; a **NO share** pays out if it does not. Because the market is tied to the Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)”, traders should focus on the official figure rather than headline weather apps or rounded forecasts.[1][7]

The current **0% YES** price implies the crowd sees that outcome as effectively impossible, but August in Hong Kong is climatologically hot, with the Observatory’s normal mean maximum for 10 August at **31.1°C** and a mean temperature of **28.7°C**.[3] Comparable recent August data show very warm conditions persisting into the second week of the month, including the Observatory’s monthly summary for August 2025 noting a **34.4°C** maximum on 10 August.[14] Broader historical data also suggest that mid-30s Celsius readings are plausible on hot days in Hong Kong, so the market is effectively pricing a particular temperature band rather than the general likelihood of heat.[6][9]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather at the Observatory, the timing of the final daily extract, and any last-minute convective rain or cloud cover that suppresses the peak temperature. Official values are usually published after the day closes, and this market cannot resolve until that publication appears.[1][4] Short-range forecasts from commercial providers pointed to a very warm, unsettled day around 10 August, with highs in the mid-30s Celsius, while the Observatory’s own historical and climatological pages remain the cleanest source for settlement.[11][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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