Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market asks traders to predict which temperature range will contain that single daily maximum reading. A YES share pays out if the actual temperature falls within your chosen range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. The Observatory publishes these measurements to one decimal place in its Daily Extract records, which serve as the official settlement source once data is finalised.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Historical data shows daily maxima in mid-August typically cluster between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme heat above 35°C occurring in roughly one in five years. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders may be waiting for clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market ahead of the 2026 summer season. August 2025 data, once published, will provide the most recent comparable baseline for typical conditions during this period.

The Hong Kong Observatory updates its climate records on a fixed schedule following each calendar month's close. Traders should monitor the Observatory's official website for publication of August 2026 data, typically released within weeks of month-end. No interim forecasts or alerts will affect settlement—only the recorded absolute daily maximum matters. The market cannot resolve until the Observatory has finalised and published the Daily Extract for 11 August 2026, making the settlement window's end date a hard deadline for data availability rather than a forecast cutoff.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.