Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market invites traders to predict which temperature range will contain that single measurement. A YES share pays out if the actual maximum falls within your chosen bracket; a NO share pays if it falls outside. The settlement hinges entirely on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" figure, published in their Daily Extract once the day concludes and data verification is complete.

Hong Kong's August climate is characterised by intense heat and humidity. Historical August maxima typically cluster between 32 and 34°C, though extremes have reached 36°C during particularly severe heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see little conviction around any single temperature band, or the market may be awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital. August 2026 sits far enough ahead that meteorological models remain unreliable; traders will gain sharper information as spring progresses and seasonal patterns become clearer.

The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts and seasonal outlooks on its website, with updates typically issued fortnightly. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late July and early August, as storms can suppress temperatures significantly. El Niño or La Niña conditions, tracked by the Japan Meteorological Agency and reported in real time, also influence regional heat patterns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 19 August, after which only published Observatory data will determine the outcome.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.