Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event here is the highest daytime temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory for Hong Kong on 2 August, reported in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final result lands in the specific outcome range you bought; a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so the contract is really a bet on one exact temperature band rather than “hot” or “cool” in general.[1][4][16]

The current **0% YES** crowd price suggests traders are not assigning value to the named outcome at present, but that can happen when liquidity is thin or when attention is concentrated in neighbouring bands. That matters because Hong Kong’s August climate is normally very warm: the Observatory’s climatology shows a 2 August mean maximum of **31.5°C**, and broader August averages are typically in the low 30s, making mid-to-high 20s and low 30s the most plausible resolution zones in a normal summer pattern.[5][13] Recent market pricing on the live event page also shows the crowd clustering around **27°C** and **28°C** rather than the outlying bands, which is a useful clue for how traders are positioning the range distribution.[1]

What can move this market is not a formal announcement but the weather itself: the Observatory’s day-of forecasts, any thunderstorm or typhoon warnings, and whether cloud, rain or an onshore flow suppresses the daytime maximum. The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Daily Extract”, because this contract only settles once the official “Absolute Daily Max” for 2 August is published, and the figure used is the recorded maximum temperature, not a forecast.[4][7][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.