Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 24 July 2026**, as measured by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract in Celsius to one decimal place. In simple prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the outcome matches the market’s condition, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, that means the eventual settlement depends on which temperature band contains the day’s official maximum.

A **0% YES** price suggests traders currently see this specific outcome as effectively absent, but that does not mean the weather itself is certain — only that the crowd thinks the quoted range is not the most likely landing spot. Hong Kong’s July climate is usually hot and very wet: one July climate guide says the city typically has **31 rainy days** and about **296.1 mm** of rainfall in the month, which is useful context because cloud cover and rain can cap daytime highs, while brief clear spells can still push temperatures higher.[1]

For traders, the key catalyst is not a live forecast headline but the **Hong Kong Observatory’s publication schedule**: the market cannot resolve until the official daily extract for 24 July is posted and finalised. Until then, the main dependencies are the actual observed maximum at the Observatory and any late updates to the daily climate record; in practice, prediction markets of this kind often move more on the timing of the official data release than on general weather commentary.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.