Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event here is the **highest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on 25 July**, measured by the Hong Kong Observatory and resolved from its final *Daily Extract* once published. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the specified temperature band contains the official daily maximum; a **NO** share pays out if it does not.

The current crowd price of **1% YES** implies traders think the specified outcome is very unlikely, which is typical when the market is asking about a precise weather reading rather than a broad “hot day” call. Hong Kong’s July climate is usually firmly in the low 30s Celsius: WeatherSpark says daily highs are around **32°C** and are rarely below **29°C** or above **34°C**, while Travel China Guide gives an average July high of **32°C** with frequent rain and high humidity[3][4]. That means the key question is usually not whether it will be warm, but whether the official maximum lands in the exact band offered by the market.

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s forecast updates, any weather system affecting South China in the days before the close, and the eventual publication of the final daily figures. The market cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory posts the finalized data for that date, so late changes in rain, cloud cover, or a tropical disturbance can matter more than the seasonal average[1][3][4]. Once the Observatory releases its final **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)** for 25 July, the settlement should follow that published number rather than live intraday readings[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.