Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded **highest temperature** on 27 July, with settlement based on the final “Absolute Daily Max” figure in degrees Celsius. In prediction-market terms, a **Yes** share pays out if the temperature falls into the specific range you bought; a **No** share pays if it does not, so the quoted probability is the crowd’s estimate of that exact bucket rather than a general view of the weather.

A 0% crowd-implied probability usually means traders see the stated bucket as effectively impossible, but that does not tell you the whole distribution across neighbouring outcomes. Hong Kong’s July temperatures are typically hot and humid, and recent comparable market coverage shows traders have treated 30°C readings as plausible in mid-July, with one Hong Kong temperature market resolving at 30°C on 19 July after moving from a much lower opening price.[4] That kind of historical comparison matters because these contracts often hinge on whether the day lands in a narrow range, not on whether it is simply “hot” or “cool”.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual weather pattern and the Hong Kong Observatory’s publication schedule, because this market cannot resolve until the final daily extract is posted on the Observatory’s climatology page.[3] A trader should watch for updates to the local forecast, rainfall and cloud cover, since July in Hong Kong is often unsettled and wet conditions can cap daytime highs; one recent July outlook pointed to significant rainfall through the month.[1] If the morning starts damp or a tropical disturbance is nearby, the market can reprice quickly as traders infer whether the day’s maximum will land in a lower Celsius bucket.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.