Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event here is simple: the market pays out on the **highest temperature recorded at Houston Hobby Airport** on 23 July 2026, using the Wunderground daily history page as the settlement source. A **YES** share only wins if the final outcome lands in the market’s specified temperature range; a **NO** share wins if it does not. Because the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, the key uncertainty is not just the day’s daytime heat but whether the airport’s official maximum has already been set by then.

A useful way to read the current **0% YES** price is as a statement about timing rather than a forecast of a cool day. Houston summer highs commonly sit in the mid-90s Fahrenheit, and the localconditions past-weather record for Houston shows a recent example of a **95°F** high with humid conditions, which is broadly consistent with the city’s normal summer pattern.[1] For a market like this, historical context matters because the exact range thresholds can be narrow: if the market’s bins are centred around typical Houston heat, a small difference of a few degrees can decide the contract even when the broader weather picture looks routine.[1]

Traders should watch the forecast trend for Houston Hobby Airport, especially whether the day starts with morning cloud, rain chances, or stronger onshore flow that can cap the maximum temperature. The most relevant catalysts are any last-minute changes in the airport forecast, the time of peak heating relative to the settlement cut-off, and whether observed temperatures are being updated steadily on the source page. In practical terms, prediction market shares here are just binary claims on the bin containing the final high, so the live airport observation matters more than citywide headlines or feel-like temperatures.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Houston on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.