Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event behind this market is the highest Celsius reading recorded by NOAA at Istanbul Airport on 22 July, and a **YES** share pays out if the final maximum falls inside the specific temperature band named by the contract, while a **NO** share pays if it does not. Because the market resolves from NOAA’s hourly “Temp” readings at LTFM and cannot settle until the next day’s first data point is published, late-evening updates can still matter if the day’s peak occurs near the end of the reporting window.

For context, Istanbul’s July climate is usually warm rather than extreme, with typical daily highs around 29°C and lows near 21°C, so the market is usually about whether the airport reaches the upper end of its normal summer range rather than whether it posts a record heat event.[1] The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES indicates traders are assigning no chance to the contract’s target band, which may reflect expectations that the peak will land elsewhere or that the market’s chosen range is too narrow. Recent similar prediction markets on Istanbul temperatures have also concentrated on the exact top end of the day’s maximum, underscoring how small differences of 1–2°C can decide the outcome.[2]

The main catalysts are the day’s actual NOAA observations, which are typically driven by local sunshine, sea-breeze effects and the timing of the afternoon high. A trader should watch the airport’s published hourly temperatures and any delay in NOAA updating the final row for 22 July, because the market explicitly waits for the first data point on 23 July before it can resolve. If the afternoon peak is already in and later readings stay lower, the contract’s fate becomes much clearer; if temperatures are still climbing into the evening, the final hour matters most.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.