Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 August, the market resolves to the **highest air temperature** recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport, not the citywide average or the “feels like” temperature. A YES share pays if the recorded maximum falls in the specified temperature range; a NO share pays if it does not, so traders are really pricing the chance of a particular band being hit at that airport station.

For context, Kuala Lumpur in August is usually hot and humid, with forecast providers putting typical highs around the low 30s Celsius and daily highs often ranging from about 31°C to 34°C this year. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows highs of 88°F to 93°F, while other forecasts for early August point to afternoon temperatures near 32°C to 33°C, with humidity and scattered thunderstorms common. That means the current 0% YES price only makes sense if the market’s target range is well away from the more plausible late-morning and afternoon peak.

The main things to watch are the day’s hourly temperature path, cloud cover, and thunderstorm timing, because convective rain can cap the maximum if it arrives early, while broken cloud and light winds can let temperatures climb higher before midday. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, so the relevant peak is the hottest reading reached before that cut-off, which corresponds to the local early-evening period in Kuala Lumpur. Forecast updates from weather services and any shift in rain timing or intensity are the key dependencies for the final reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.