Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport's weather station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the day's peak temperature will land within a specific bracket—say, 32–33 °C—whilst a NO share bets it will fall outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical data from Wunderground, the resolution source, which archives daily highs for the airport's official station in Sepang District. Traders are essentially forecasting which temperature band will contain that single highest reading across the entire calendar day.

Kuala Lumpur's July climate is remarkably consistent. Historical records show daily highs typically cluster between 31 and 34 °C during the monsoon season, with the airport station rarely recording extremes beyond this narrow band. The 0% crowd probability on the current option suggests traders view it as an unlikely outcome—possibly a temperature range at either tail of the distribution, or one that conflicts with seasonal norms. Comparable July days at the same station over the past decade provide a reliable baseline; departures from the 31–34 °C median are infrequent enough that outlier ranges command minimal backing.

No major weather announcements or atmospheric disruptions are scheduled for mid-July 2026 at present. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts in the weeks prior, as any system tracking toward peninsular Malaysia could elevate humidity and cloud cover, potentially suppressing daytime highs. Conversely, clear skies and light wind favour higher temperatures. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 19 July, giving the market a hard deadline aligned with the airport station's daily observation cycle.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on July 19? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.