Highest temperature in London on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market tracking summer heat in the capital. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range the trader selected; a NO share pays out if it does not. In this case, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-universal belief that the temperature will not hit the targeted range.

Historical July highs in London often reach 25–30°C, with London City Airport recording 29.4°C in July 2022 during the UK’s extreme heatwave. However, 2024 and 2025 saw more moderate peaks around 24–26°C, suggesting variability is common. The current 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the selected range and recent trends, or perhaps the range is set above plausible expectations for this location and date.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from the Met Office and real-time data from Wunderground, the official resolution source. No specific announcements are expected, but seasonal weather bulletins and short-term model updates released each morning could shift sentiment. As settlement closes on 19 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, liquidity may thin, making early positioning more efficient than waiting for last-minute data.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.