Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport’s highest temperature on 17 August is the real-world event behind this market, and the contract resolves off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary. A YES share pays if the day’s recorded peak lands in the market’s specified Fahrenheit band; a NO share pays if it does not.

For context, August in Los Angeles is usually hot rather than extreme, with long-run highs commonly in the mid-80s Fahrenheit and warm nights around the upper 60s. Recent August coverage has also pointed to temperatures easing at LAX versus inland areas, with one report on 10 August noting 79°F at LAX while Burbank was expected to reach 93°F, which is a useful reminder that airport readings can run cooler than much of the basin. That makes a 0% implied YES price easier to read as the crowd seeing the target band as very unlikely, not as a statement that the temperature cannot vary at all.

Traders usually watch the afternoon temperature curve, marine layer timing, and any heat advisory or cooling trend affecting coastal Los Angeles. For a market tied to a single station, the relevant dependency is the exact LAX observation on the day, not broader county forecasts; if conditions stay onshore and cloud cover lingers, the airport high can undershoot inland readings by a wide margin.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.