Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 20 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs as defined, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are virtually certain the temperature will not fall into the specific range being bet on, likely because the frontrunner outcome is 80–81°F at 100% probability [1].

Historical July data for Los Angeles shows highs typically around 29°C (84°F), with recent confirmed readings like 74–75°F on 4 July 2026 aligning closely with market expectations [2][3]. The 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the bet range and the consensus that temperatures will exceed it, as the market has already locked in 80–81°F as the definitive outcome with full confidence [1].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any unusual heatwave announcements from the National Weather Service that could shift temperatures beyond the expected range [1]. While no immediate catalysts are scheduled, seasonal climate patterns in Southern California during mid-July usually stabilise around these highs, making sudden deviations unlikely unless a rare atmospheric event occurs [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.