Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 22 July, the key real-world event is the **highest temperature** recorded at Los Angeles International Airport, because that single daily maximum determines how the market resolves. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final outcome lands in the listed temperature range, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, traders are effectively deciding which Fahrenheit band will contain the day’s peak reading at LAX.

The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** points to a market that is already treating the target outcome as effectively off the board, which is often what happens when the expected daily high has moved well below the relevant range or when late-day cooling has already capped the reading. For context, the market screen shows 76–77°F as the current frontrunner at 100%, with 67°F or below at 0%, indicating that the crowd is concentrated in one narrow outcome rather than spreading risk across several nearby bands.[1] A temperature market like this is usually easier to read than a broad weather forecast because the settlement depends on one exact station and one exact statistic, not on conditions across the whole city.

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s marine layer, onshore breeze, cloud cover and any change in forecast guidance from local meteorology services, because these factors drive whether LAX warms enough to shift bands. On the morning of 23 July UTC, AccuWeather showed Los Angeles at 83°F with strong heat indicators, but that is only a snapshot and not the settlement source; the contract settles on the Wunderground daily history page for LAX, so any position depends on the station’s recorded maximum rather than headline city forecasts.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.