Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow will fall within one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome lands in your chosen range; a NO share pays if it lands elsewhere. This market uses Weather Underground's Daily Observations table as its authoritative source, prioritising that over summary figures, which occasionally diverge. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the resolution date, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on morning temperature readings.

Lucknow's August climate is characterised by monsoon influence and high humidity. Historical data from the airport station shows August highs typically range between 32–36°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 37°C during particularly intense heat waves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are not expecting an exceptionally high reading for that specific date, though this reflects only aggregate sentiment at present rather than any meteorological certainty. Comparable August days at the station provide the baseline against which the market's range thresholds are calibrated.

The primary catalyst will be the monsoon system's position and intensity in mid-August 2026. Cloud cover and rainfall patterns directly suppress daytime temperatures; conversely, breaks in monsoon activity can produce sharp heat spikes. Traders should monitor India Meteorological Department forecasts released in the week preceding 17 August, as these typically provide 7–10 day outlooks with reasonable skill. Local weather alerts or heat advisories, if issued, would signal conditions favouring higher temperature outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.