Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature** recorded at Madrid-Barajas Airport on 2 August 2026, with the market settling to the Celsius band that contains that day’s peak reading from Wunderground. In plain terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final recorded maximum lands in the outcome you hold; a **NO** share pays out if it does not. With the crowd currently assigning **0%** to YES, the market is effectively treating the listed band as impossible or not yet priced, so traders are mainly reading the weather setup rather than chasing a consensus trade.

Historical context matters because Madrid in August is typically hot, and forecast ranges around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius are ordinary rather than exceptional. Long-run climate summaries for Madrid put August daytime highs around the low 30s, while recent forecasts for 2 August 2026 pointed to a maximum around **35–36°C** in the city, with sunshine, dry air and little or no rain. Comparable Spanish heat episodes in 2026 have already pushed Madrid into the mid-30s and triggered official warnings, which is the sort of pattern that often keeps upper-temperature bands in play rather than leaving them out of reach.[1][3][4][7][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the last-mile forecast updates and any official heat advisories affecting central Spain, because these can shift expectations for whether the airport station edges higher or falls short of the next band. The market’s own rules also matter: settlement depends on the Wunderground history page for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, and revisions can be relevant until the next day’s first datapoint appears. That means late-evening observations, overnight cooling, and any post-event data corrections are the practical variables to watch rather than broader monthly averages.[5][11][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.