Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event here is the **highest temperature recorded at Madrid-Barajas Airport on 22 July 2026**, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved from Wunderground’s daily history page for the station. In this market, a **YES share** pays out if the recorded daily maximum lands in the specified temperature range for the contract; a **NO share** pays if it does not. The current 0% YES reading means traders are pricing that outcome as effectively impossible, not that it cannot happen.

To read that price, it helps to compare it with nearby outcomes and the weather backdrop. On Polymarket, the nearby bracket is heavily concentrated around **39°C**, with **40°C** also given a meaningful chance, which shows the market is expecting a very hot day rather than an outlier. That lines up with contemporary local forecasts published on 22 July, which described Madrid as likely to reach **39°C** with no rain expected. For a new market reader, the key point is that the contract depends on the *station’s observed maximum*, not a citywide average or a forecast headline.

The main catalyst to watch is the actual intraday temperature path at Madrid-Barajas before the settlement cut-off, since the final reading can still shift if the late afternoon stays hot. Forecast updates, cloud cover, wind, and whether the peak arrives before or after the measurement window all matter because the contract resolves from the day’s highest observed reading at the airport station. Traders also watch any revision in official weather guidance, but the decisive input is the recorded maximum on Wunderground rather than the forecast itself.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.