Highest temperature in Madrid on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s airport temperature on 24 July 2026 will be the deciding number for this market, taken from Wunderground’s daily history page for Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport. A **YES** share pays if the day’s recorded high lands in the market’s specified temperature range; a **NO** share pays if it does not.

The current **0% YES** crowd price implies traders see virtually no chance that the final airport reading will fall into the target band, but that should be read as a live estimate rather than a certainty. For a midsummer Madrid market, the main context is the city’s normal heat pattern: late July often brings very warm afternoons, yet the outcome here depends on the exact airport maximum, not the wider city forecast or the highest temperature elsewhere in Madrid.

For traders, the key catalysts are the day’s official forecast updates, any heatwave warnings from Spain’s meteorological service, and the timing of the afternoon peak temperature at the airport, which is usually what sets the final daily high. Because settlement uses the airport station specifically, even a strong city-wide heat event matters only if it is reflected in that Wunderground station record by the close of the day.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.