Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Madrid's highest temperature will be recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, the city's official weather station. A prediction market allows traders to buy YES or NO shares on whether that peak temperature will fall within a specific range. Buying a YES share means you believe it will; a NO share means you don't. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, and the actual temperature will be verified through Wunderground's historical records for the airport station.

Madrid's July temperatures are consistently hot, with historical highs regularly exceeding 35°C. The current 5% probability assigned to this particular range suggests traders view it as an outlier outcome—either unusually cold or unusually warm for midsummer. Comparable July days at the airport have produced peaks between 32°C and 40°C in recent decades, with extreme heat events (above 42°C) occurring roughly once per decade during summer months. The 5% crowd assessment implies the market expects a more typical mid-range outcome rather than an exceptional reading.

European summer weather patterns in 2026 will depend on Atlantic pressure systems and potential heat domes developing across the continent in late July. The Spanish meteorological agency (AEMET) typically issues forecasts 10–14 days ahead, though confidence narrows significantly beyond a week. Traders should monitor late-July weather models from mid-July onwards, particularly any alerts from AEMET regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns that could push temperatures toward extremes in either direction.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.