Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Mexico City's Benito Juárez International Airport will fall into one of several predefined ranges. Traders purchase YES or NO shares on each range; a YES share pays out if that range contains the actual high, whilst a NO share pays if it does not. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Weather Underground for that specific station and date. Currently, the crowd has assigned 0% probability to all ranges, which is mathematically impossible—one range must occur—suggesting either thin liquidity or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Mexico City's altitude of 2,250 metres and tropical highland climate produce relatively stable summer temperatures. July highs at Benito Juárez typically range between 25°C and 28°C, with occasional peaks near 30°C during dry spells. Historical records from the past decade show July 24 specifically has seen highs between 25·5°C and 27·8°C, making extreme outliers unlikely. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges is therefore an anomaly worth investigating before trading; it may reflect incomplete market initialisation rather than predictive insight.

Traders should monitor Mexico City's weather forecasts from late June onwards, particularly any alerts for heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The Mexican meteorological service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead. Seasonal factors—including the onset of the rainy season and typical convective cooling—will influence whether July 24 trends toward the cooler or warmer end of the historical band.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.