Highest temperature in Milan on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Milan's Malpensa International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market invites traders to predict which bracket will capture that day's peak reading in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will match the specified range; a NO share means it won't. Here, the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any single range resolving YES, suggesting either extreme uncertainty or that settlement data remains unavailable at market open.

Milan's summer temperatures are well documented. Historical records from Malpensa show July peaks typically ranging between 28 and 33°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves. The city experienced a notable heat event in July 2023 when temperatures exceeded 36°C for consecutive days. July 2022 saw similar extremes. These precedents help calibrate expectations: a reading below 25°C would be unusually cool for midsummer, whilst anything above 34°C would signal above-average heat. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects incomplete market seeding rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will occur.

Weather forecasting accuracy for a specific date one year ahead remains limited. Traders should monitor European summer weather patterns as 2026 approaches, particularly any signals from climate indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation or Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures. Wunderground's historical data portal will provide the definitive settlement figure once 21 July passes. The resolution window closes at noon UTC, allowing time for overnight and early-morning readings to be captured.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Milan on July 21? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.