Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature in Celsius. Prediction markets allow traders to buy YES or NO shares on whether that temperature will fall within a specific range. A YES share pays out if the event occurs; a NO share pays out if it doesn't. This market settles based on the highest temperature logged in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular hourly records—rather than the summary high-low section, which occasionally diverges from raw station data.

Munich's August climate typically produces highs between 23°C and 27°C, with occasional excursions above 28°C during heat waves. Historical August records at Munich Airport show that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 20°C are rare. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's specified temperature range to fall outside the typical August envelope, or that the range itself is positioned at an extreme tail of the distribution. Without visibility on which exact range this market is testing, the low probability likely reflects either an unusually high threshold (above 32°C) or an unusually low one (below 15°C).

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting updates in mid-August 2026, particularly from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst), which issues 10-day outlooks roughly two weeks in advance. Anomalous heat patterns across central Europe—driven by high-pressure systems or Atlantic blocking—would shift probabilities upward for elevated temperature ranges. Conversely, Atlantic low-pressure systems bringing cooler, wetter conditions would favour lower ranges. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, so final adjustments typically occur as morning forecasts crystallise.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.