Highest temperature in Munich on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event here is the **highest temperature** recorded at Munich Airport Station on 7 August 2026, as published on Wunderground’s daily history page; the market resolves to whichever Celsius band contains that day’s peak reading. A **YES** share pays if the final settlement falls in the contract’s specified range, while a **NO** share pays if it does not, so the key task is not whether Munich feels hot overall, but whether the day’s maximum lands in the right bracket.

A 0% crowd-implied probability usually means the market is pricing the outcome as extremely unlikely, though that can reflect thin trading as much as strong conviction. Seasonal context points the other way: Munich’s August climate is typically warm but not extreme, with average daytime highs around 22–25°C and a normal monthly high distribution that can reach the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius in hotter spells.[4][7][11][19] Short-range forecasts for early August 2026 show mild-to-warm conditions rather than exceptional heat, with several sources putting 7 August around the low-to-mid 20s Celsius and some rain risk.[2][5][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the final weather evolution on 7 August, especially cloud cover, rain timing, and any late-day warm-up before the observation window closes at noon UTC. Because the settlement source is Munich Airport Station on Wunderground, the most relevant dependency is the station’s recorded maximum rather than city-centre forecasts; airport readings can differ from broader Munich forecasts by a degree or more. If updated forecasts converge on a cooler, wetter day, the upper bands weaken; if a hot, sunny run develops, the market can reprice quickly even without any formal announcement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.