Highest temperature in Munich on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the temperature will land in a specific bracket; a NO share bets it will not. The settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, which logs daily highs at the airport's official monitoring station. Traders purchase shares at fractional prices reflecting the collective estimate of likelihood—currently showing 0% probability, meaning the market has assigned negligible confidence to this particular outcome band.

Munich's July temperatures typically range between 20 and 28 degrees Celsius, with occasional peaks above 30°C during heat waves. Historical records show that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 32°C in midsummer—occur roughly once every five to seven years in the Munich region. The current 0% crowd assessment suggests traders expect a temperature outcome outside the highest defined bracket, or that the market has simply not yet populated all available ranges with meaningful liquidity. Comparable European cities at similar latitudes show July highs clustering around 25–27°C under typical atmospheric conditions.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the large-scale weather pattern developing across central Europe in the weeks preceding late July 2026. Traders should monitor extended-range forecasts from national meteorological services, particularly the German Deutscher Wetterdienst, which typically issue reliable ten-to-fourteen-day outlooks by mid-July. Anomalous pressure systems, jet-stream positioning, and any developing heat domes over the continent could shift probabilities substantially as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.