Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome for any temperature range above the frontrunner, indicating near-total confidence that the heat will not exceed the leading forecast.

Historical data frames how to interpret this probability. LaGuardia has previously recorded extreme midnight heat, such as 94°F on 18 July 2013, and 94°F at midnight on a recent East Coast heatwave, showing that NYC can sustain unusually high temperatures even late in the day [2]. However, July 20 is not typically among the hottest days of the month, and the current frontrunner outcome of 82–83°F holds 100% market confidence, suggesting traders see little chance of a record-breaking spike [1].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source for this market [3]. Key catalysts include any sudden heatwave announcements, changes in humidity levels, or shifts in wind patterns that could elevate temperatures beyond the 82–83°F range. Since the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 20 July 2026, late-evening temperature readings on 19 July and early-morning data on 20 July will be critical in confirming whether the current probability remains accurate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.