Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the *highest* temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 23 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved from Weather Underground’s KLGA history page. In practical terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final reported daily high falls within the market’s specified temperature range; a **NO** share pays out if it does not.

The current 0% implied probability on **YES** should be read as a market price, not a forecast of impossibility. On comparable weather markets, traders usually anchor around the expected daily high and then adjust for uncertainty around afternoon convection, sea-breeze effects, and whether a late-day spike gets locked in as the day’s maximum. Here, the market’s current frontrunner is the 80–81°F band at 72%, with 82–83°F next at 19%, which suggests participants see a fairly tight distribution around the low 80s rather than a broad swing.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the same factors that drive the actual station reading: the day’s forecast trend, any heat advisory or front timing from the National Weather Service, and whether clouds or showers develop during peak heating hours. Because the settlement source is a single station rather than a citywide average, small local changes near the airport can matter more than the broader New York forecast, and the final outcome only depends on the highest value reported for that calendar day at KLGA.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.