Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the peak temperature will land within a specific bracket—say, 85–89°F—whilst a NO share bets it will fall outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, the designated source, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to recorded meteorological observation rather than forecast or interpretation.

New York's July temperatures cluster around a mean high of 82–84°F, though the city regularly experiences heat waves pushing into the low 90s. The National Weather Service records show that July 2022 saw a peak of 91°F at LaGuardia, whilst July 2019 reached 90°F. The 0% implied probability on the current market likely reflects either an extremely narrow or already-settled range definition, or indicates that traders have not yet engaged with this particular contract. Historical volatility in midsummer New York weather—driven by Atlantic tropical systems, heat domes, and urban heat island effects—suggests meaningful temperature swings are plausible across different scenarios.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal climate forecasts from NOAA released in spring 2026, which typically signal whether the summer will trend warmer or cooler than normal. Real-time atmospheric conditions in late July, including the position of the jet stream and any tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, will shape the final outcome. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 24 July, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on morning weather reports and overnight low readings.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.