Highest temperature in NYC on July 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 28 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the peak temperature lands within a specific bracket (the exact range is not visible in the current market snapshot); a NO share bets it lands elsewhere. Settlement relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground, the standard archive for US airport observations, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to a single, verifiable measurement.

New York City's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year. LaGuardia's July daily highs typically cluster between 82°F and 88°F, with extreme outliers rare. The 30-year average high for late July sits around 84°F. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or that the market's specified range sits well outside historical norms—a signal worth examining against climatological precedent rather than accepting at face value.

The primary catalyst is the Atlantic hurricane season, which peaks in August but can influence July weather patterns through tropical systems or their remnants. The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead; checking their outlooks in mid-July will clarify whether any organised systems threaten the Northeast. Additionally, urban heat island effects mean LaGuardia's reading may run 2–3°F warmer than surrounding areas during high-pressure systems. Traders should monitor early-July weather patterns for any indication of anomalous heat or cool spells establishing themselves across the region.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.