Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest recorded temperature at Paris–Le Bourget Airport on 23 July, measured in degrees Celsius and reported by Wunderground for that station. In simple prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the recorded maximum lands in the specified temperature range for the market’s resolution rules, while a **NO** share pays out otherwise; the current 0% implied probability means traders are effectively saying the listed outcome is not expected.

For context, Paris in July usually sits in the mid-20s Celsius for daytime highs, so a result around the 25°C band is meteorologically ordinary rather than extreme.[2][3] Wunderground’s own market page currently shows 25°C as the frontrunner at 100%, with 21°C or below at 0%, which suggests the crowd is positioning for a warm but not exceptional day rather than a sharp heat spike.[1] That matters because this market is about the *single highest reading* at one station, not the citywide average, so a brief afternoon peak can decide the outcome even if most of the day feels milder.

The main catalysts are the same ones that move a short-dated weather market: late forecast updates, cloud cover, wind direction, and whether any convective showers or sea-breeze effects cap the daytime maximum. A recent Paris forecast summary pointed to partly cloudy conditions and temperatures roughly between 15°C and 28°C in Île-de-France, which is consistent with a result near the mid-20s rather than an outlier heat reading.[4] Because the resolution source is a specific airport station, traders should watch the station-level Wunderground history page and any last-minute forecast revisions, since a one- or two-degree shift can move the outcome across a range boundary.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.