Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 24 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual temperature matches your chosen bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical weather data logged by Weather Underground, which aggregates observations from the airport's official monitoring station throughout the day.

Paris experiences considerable seasonal variation in July, with average highs around 25–26°C, though heat waves regularly push readings into the low 30s. The city's record July temperature stands at 40.4°C, set in 2022 during an exceptional European heat event. More typical extremes cluster between 28–32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration test, since some temperature outcome is certain to occur.

The key variable for July 2026 is European atmospheric circulation patterns, which remain difficult to forecast with precision beyond two weeks. Traders should monitor late-June weather models from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which typically show skill in predicting whether high-pressure systems or Atlantic fronts will dominate the region. Any major climate anomalies or announced heat alerts in early July would sharpen probability estimates closer to settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.