Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 23 July 2026, as reported by Wunderground for that station. In a prediction market, a **Yes** share pays out if the final result falls inside the specific outcome you selected, while a **No** share pays if it does not; here, the settlement depends on which temperature band contains the day’s peak reading. Because the market resolves from a single station and a single day’s maximum, traders are really pricing the odds of the airport’s warmest reading landing in one of the listed Celsius ranges, not the citywide experience. [2]

A **0% Yes** price usually means the crowd sees that outcome as effectively impossible or too unlikely to bother pricing, rather than literally impossible. The closest reference point in the live market is the 23°C band at 28%, followed by 24°C at 24%, which suggests traders expect a relatively mild peak rather than a late-afternoon heat spike. That fits the broader seasonal pattern for São Paulo in July, when conditions are typically cooler and weather forecasts for the city show rain and a high around 76°F, or about 24°C, reinforcing the idea that mid-20s Celsius outcomes are the main area to watch. [2][1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s local weather developments at Guarulhos: cloud cover, rain timing, wind shifts, and any brief sunny window that could lift the afternoon maximum. Since the market settles only on the highest reading through the full day, an early cool morning does not matter if temperatures rise later; equally, a passing shower can cap the peak. The key dependency is the station-level Wunderground history for SBGR, because even a small change in the eventual maximum can move the result from one outcome band to another. [2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.