Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature will reach a specific threshold; a NO share bets it will not. The market's settlement hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular, minute-by-minute record rather than the rounded summary figures—ensuring precision in what counts as the official high.

Seattle's August climate typically produces highs between 75 and 85 degrees Fahrenheit, with occasional excursions into the low 90s during heat waves. Historical records show that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur roughly once every three to four years in mid-August, whilst readings above 95°F remain rare at the airport station. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's upper threshold to remain unbreached, reflecting baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific forecast anomaly.

The National Weather Service Pacific Northwest office issues extended forecasts roughly ten days before mid-August, with updates refining confidence in heat patterns. La Niña or El Niño conditions influence Pacific jet-stream positioning and can shift August temperatures materially; current oceanic indices and seasonal outlooks from NOAA will shape trader positioning as August 2026 approaches. Real-time monitoring of upper-atmosphere patterns and any developing high-pressure systems over the Pacific Northwest becomes critical in the final week before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.