Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport will need to record a **daily high** on 23 July 2026, and this market settles on the temperature band containing that highest reading. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the specified outcome happens and a **NO** share pays out if it does not; here, the relevant event is not “will it be hot”, but *which* temperature range the airport’s official high lands in on the day.

The current **0% YES** crowd price suggests traders see no support for a YES outcome in the listed band, but that can be misleading if the market is being read too narrowly or if the available bands are very specific. Seattle’s July climate is usually mild rather than extreme: typical highs are around **75°F**, with warm, dry afternoons more common than heatwave conditions.[1] That makes mid-70s to low-80s Fahrenheit the most plausible neighbourhood for the day’s maximum under ordinary summer patterns, though rare spikes can occur.

For traders, the main catalyst is the actual weather pattern over the Pacific North-West in the days before settlement: coastal onshore flow, marine cloud cover, and any inland heat ridge can shift the high several degrees either way. The resolution source is Wunderground’s Seattle-Tacoma International Airport history page, so the focus is the airport station reading, not a citywide average or a forecast from another site.[2] NOAA’s KSEA station page is also useful for checking the station’s official observation context and recent time-series data.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seattle on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.