Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. A YES share on any given range means you believe the day's peak temperature will land in that bracket; a NO share means you believe it will fall outside. The market's 0% implied probability on the displayed range suggests traders currently assess it as an unlikely outcome, though the specific range in question isn't detailed in the available context. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters because station instruments can record micro-variations that don't always surface in rounded daily summaries.

Seoul's August climate presents a consistent pattern: mid-summer heat peaks typically between 28–32°C, with occasional spikes above 33°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Korea Meteorological Administration shows that extreme temperatures—those exceeding 35°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in August at Incheon. The current crowd assessment reflects either confidence in a moderate-temperature outcome or uncertainty about which specific range the market is pricing. Comparable August days at Incheon rarely deviate sharply from the seasonal mean, though tropical systems moving northward from the Pacific can introduce volatility.

Traders should monitor the East Asian weather pattern in early August 2026, particularly the position of the North Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity tracking toward the Korean peninsula. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts ten days ahead; these updates will be critical for reassessing probabilities as the settlement date approaches. Humidity levels and overnight lows also influence daytime maxima, making broader atmospheric conditions worth tracking through standard meteorological bulletins.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.