Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 3 August 2026 falls within the market’s specified range. A **YES** share pays if the day’s recorded peak lands in that band; a **NO** share pays if it lands outside it, using the Wunderground history page as the settlement source.

For context, this is a late-summer heat market in a part of South Korea where August is usually hot and humid, but the exact daily high still moves around with cloud cover, sea breezes and showers. Forecasts published on 2 August pointed to Seoul around 35–37°C and Incheon around 33–34°C, while broader August norms for Seoul sit closer to the high 20s, which shows how much the current spell is running above average.[3][6][8][17] That matters because a 0% implied probability is only sensible if the market’s temperature band is well away from the forecast range; otherwise, it usually signals a mispriced contract, a stale order book or both.

Traders should watch the morning and afternoon forecast updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration, plus whether cloud, rain or coastal haze develops over the capital region during the day, since these are the main factors that can shave a degree or two off the airport reading.[4][6][12] One recent report also noted showers in parts of the west and a wide heatwave warning across Seoul, while another said the whole country would be under the North Pacific high’s influence, supporting mostly clear weather and sustained heat.[1][8] Because this market settles on the *highest* observation for the day, even a brief early-afternoon spike can matter more than the closing temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.