Highest temperature in Seoul on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest temperature** recorded at Incheon International Airport on 24 July 2026, and the market settles by which Celsius range that reading falls into. A **YES** share pays out if the final observed maximum lands in the specified range; a **NO** share pays out if it does not. Because the market uses the single daily peak rather than the average, late-morning sunshine, cloud cover, sea-breeze changes and any rain-band timing can all matter more than the day’s overall feel.

A 0% YES price usually means traders see the named range as very unlikely, but in weather markets that can reflect either a genuinely low-probability outcome or thin trading around a narrow band. Seoul and north-western Korea are in a hot, humid midsummer regime, with July climatology around 30°C daytime highs and frequent rain interruptions, so the day’s maximum can still swing several degrees depending on cloud, rainfall and timing. Local coverage on 23 July said rain was expected to affect the capital area on the 24th, while maximum apparent temperatures across much of Korea were still projected to top 33°C.[3]

For traders, the key catalysts are the overnight and morning forecast updates, plus any shift in the timing of rain over Incheon and western Seoul, because the market resolves on the airport station reading rather than on city-centre conditions. The current short-range forecast for Seoul is sunny, but seasonal July guidance points to high temperatures with frequent showers and wet conditions, so a small change in cloud or precipitation timing could alter the day’s peak.[2][1] The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for Incheon Intl Airport Station, so the decisive figure is the station’s recorded maximum for the day, not a general city forecast.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.