Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market invites traders to predict which bracket will contain that single daily maximum, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share means you believe the temperature will land in your chosen range; a NO share means it will fall outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Weather Underground, making this a straightforward factual resolution tied to a specific monitoring station rather than subjective interpretation.

Seoul's July climate sits firmly within the East Asian summer monsoon season, characterised by high humidity and sustained heat. Historical records show late-July temperatures at Incheon typically peak between 28–32°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability currently assigned suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder market pending fuller participation. Comparable July days from recent years provide the most reliable calibration: 2023 saw peaks near 30–31°C, whilst 2022 recorded similar ranges despite occasional spikes.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasts released by the Korea Meteorological Administration in the weeks leading to late July 2026. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift typical temperature distributions meaningfully. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as early-arriving typhoons or blocking high-pressure systems—would alter the probability landscape. Real-time weather models become increasingly reliable within two weeks of the settlement date, making late-July forecasts substantially more informative than long-range predictions issued now.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.