Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 August 2026, Shanghai's weather station at Pudong International Airport will record a daily maximum temperature. This market asks traders to predict which temperature band that figure will fall into. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome occurs; a NO share pays out if it doesn't. Here, traders are essentially betting on whether the day's peak temperature will exceed a specific threshold—the exact threshold depends on which temperature range the market is testing.

Shanghai's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past two decades shows daily highs in mid-August cluster between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks reaching 36–37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an outcome they view as extremely unlikely—either an unusually cold day or, conversely, an exceptionally hot one, depending on the specific temperature band in question. August is Shanghai's hottest month, so extreme cold is implausible; the low probability more likely reflects scepticism about extreme heat.

Weather forecasting accuracy degrades sharply beyond ten days, making long-range August 2026 predictions speculative. Traders should monitor seasonal climate outlooks from China's Meteorological Administration and track El Niño or La Niña patterns, which influence East Asian summer temperatures. Real-time signals will only become reliable in early August 2026, when synoptic forecasts can meaningfully constrain the outcome. The resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong—is publicly accessible, ensuring transparent settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.