Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event here is the **highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 3 August 2026**, with settlement based on the Wunderground history page for that station. In prediction-market terms, a **YES share** pays out if the final temperature falls inside the specified range for this market, while a **NO share** pays if it does not; the current crowd price of **0% YES** implies traders are assigning no chance to the target band being hit. Forecasts for Shanghai in early August typically point to intense summer heat, with daily highs often in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and humidity making conditions feel hotter than the thermometer alone suggests.[1][4][13]

Historical and comparable forecasts are useful because Shanghai’s August climate is usually very warm, but the exact daily maximum can vary sharply with rain, cloud cover and sea-breeze effects. Recent August outlooks for the city show highs around **31–34°C** on many days, with some sources putting 3 August near **35°C** and others closer to **30–31°C**, which is a wide enough spread to matter if the market’s payout bands are narrow.[2][10][11][19] For a weather market, the key point is that the listed probability reflects the chance of the *specific temperature range*, not just whether the day will be hot in general.[2][10]

A trader should watch short-range forecasts, rain and thunderstorm timing, and any signs of a typhoon-related shift, because these can pull the day’s maximum down even in a heatwave.[2][15][20] The airport station matters as much as the city forecast: Pudong can be cooler or cloudier than inland parts of Shanghai, so a citywide forecast above 35°C does not guarantee the airport’s reported high will land in the same band.[14][18] In the final hours before settlement, updates to the local forecast and observations around midday to afternoon are the main catalysts, since the day’s highest reading is usually set then.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.