Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not reach the market’s threshold, likely because historical data and current conditions point to lower values.

Historically, Shanghai experiences hot summers, with July often seeing highs between 34°C and 38°C at Pudong Airport. Recent data shows today’s maximum temperature reached 38°C, matching peak summer records [1]. However, the 0% probability implies the market’s threshold is set above this range, perhaps 39°C or higher, which is uncommon even in Shanghai’s hottest years. Comparable cases from past July days show temperatures rarely exceed 38°C, supporting the crowd’s scepticism.

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for sudden shifts in humidity, cloud cover, or thunderstorm activity that could spike temperatures. While no specific announcements are pending, the weather network notes a 90% probability of precipitation today, which typically suppresses peak heat [2]. Continuous tracking of hourly records at Pudong Airport will be essential as the settlement window closes on 20 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.