Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s daytime high on 23 July will be measured at Pudong International Airport, and the market will settle on the temperature band that contains the *highest* reading recorded there during the day. In practical terms, a **YES** share pays if the final result lands in the listed range you bought; a **NO** share pays if it does not. With the crowd currently assigning **0%** to YES, the price is effectively saying traders see no meaningful chance of that specific band winning, even though the day is still live and the eventual high can change quickly.

For context, Shanghai in July is usually hot and humid, with typical highs around 31°C and frequent muggy conditions. A recent heat-wave pattern across southern China has been associated with record-breaking temperatures in the region, which is why late-July Shanghai outcomes can sit well above seasonal averages.[2][3] On the market screen, the leading bands have been clustered around the mid-30s, with 36°C currently front-runner and 35°C close behind, showing how traders are pricing a narrow spread rather than a single fixed outcome.[1]

The key catalysts are straightforward: the local weather at Pudong, especially whether a warm, sunny spell holds through the afternoon, and any shift in cloud cover, rain, or onshore winds that can cap the high. Because the resolution uses the daily high from Wunderground’s Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station page, traders should watch the intraday forecast, not just the morning temperature, since the decisive reading often comes later in the day. Shares in this kind of market move as the latest consensus updates around the observed and forecast maximum temperature.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.