Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, Shanghai will record a daily high temperature, and this market asks traders to predict which temperature band will contain that figure. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome falls within a specified range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. Here, traders are essentially wagering on whether Shanghai's peak temperature that day will land in a particular bracket—say, 32–34 °C—rather than any other range. The settlement hinges on data from Wunderground's historical records for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, the city's primary weather station.

Shanghai's summer climate is consistently warm and humid. July temperatures typically peak between 32 and 35 °C, with occasional spikes above 36 °C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests no single temperature band has yet attracted meaningful backing, which is common in weather markets where outcomes depend on conditions months ahead and historical volatility is high. Comparable July days at Pudong show substantial year-to-year variation; 2023 saw peaks near 37 °C whilst cooler years remained closer to 31 °C.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal forecasts from China's meteorological authority and global climate models as July 2026 approaches. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present, could shift baseline temperatures. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid July may also suppress temperatures or create anomalous heat depending on storm timing and intensity. Real-time weather forecasts become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.