Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature will land in the specified bracket; a NO share bets it will not. The market's resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular, minute-by-minute readings—rather than the summary high-low figures, a distinction that matters when intraday fluctuations create discrepancies between measurement sources.

Shenzhen's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical records show daily highs typically cluster between 32–34°C during mid-August, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 35°C or falling below 31°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which temperature bracket the market offers, or the available ranges do not align with statistically probable outcomes. Reviewing comparable August days at the airport station over the past decade provides the clearest baseline: most settle in the 32–34°C band, with outliers driven by typhoon activity or unusual high-pressure systems.

The primary variable affecting 11 August's temperature will be tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid August 2026. Typhoons can suppress daytime highs by 2–4°C through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst their absence typically allows temperatures to climb toward seasonal peaks. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts and tropical weather advisories issued in late July and early August. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August, allowing only morning observations to influence the final reading.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.