Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, traders purchase YES or NO shares on specific outcomes. A YES share pays out if the event occurs; a NO share pays out if it doesn't. This market asks traders to predict which temperature bracket will contain that day's peak reading, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures.

Shenzhen's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 31–34°C during mid-August. Data from the past decade shows temperatures occasionally reaching 35°C or above during heat waves, though such extremes occur in roughly 10–15% of August days. The current 0% implied probability on YES outcomes suggests the crowd expects the highest temperature to fall outside a particular range—likely either below or above the threshold being tested. Examining historical August patterns at Bao'an station provides the baseline against which current odds should be evaluated.

Weather forecasting accuracy for specific temperature ranges degrades significantly beyond ten days. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea and upper-atmosphere pressure patterns in late July and early August, as these drive Shenzhen's short-term temperature variability. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by early August; any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual weather systems would shift expectations. Settlement depends entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, making data source reliability a critical factor rather than local news reports or other meteorological services.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.