Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the temperature will land in a specific bracket; a NO share represents a bet that it will not. The market uses the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground as its authoritative source, prioritising that dataset over summary figures if any discrepancy emerges. Settlement occurs after the calendar date closes, with the precise reading from the airport station determining which temperature band resolves to YES.

Shenzhen's August climate is consistently hot and humid, with historical highs typically between 32–35°C. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently expect the temperature to fall outside the upper range being tested. August represents peak summer in southern China, when subtropical heat dominates the region; reviewing prior years' data from the same station provides the clearest baseline for assessing whether extreme heat is plausible on any given date. Seasonal variation within August is modest, though tropical storms can occasionally suppress daytime peaks.

The primary dependency is actual weather patterns developing in the weeks leading to mid-August 2026. Typhoon activity in the western Pacific, monsoon intensity, and any anomalous pressure systems will shape conditions. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, particularly from China's national weather service and international models, as these typically gain reliability within a fortnight of the target date. Cloud cover and precipitation events in the days immediately preceding 18 August will be the most actionable signals for refining probability estimates.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 18? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.