Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the **highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport Station on 3 August 2026**, measured in degrees Celsius and judged by the day’s maximum reading on Wunderground’s history page. In prediction-market terms, a **YES share** pays out if the outcome falls within the market’s specified temperature range, while a **NO share** pays out if it does not.

The current **0% YES** crowd-implied probability suggests traders are treating the target range as very unlikely relative to Shenzhen’s usual early-August heat. Recent forecasts point to a hot, humid day with daytime highs around **33–34°C** and light to moderate south-westerly winds, conditions that can still produce a brief spike above the forecast high if sunshine breaks through or showers stay away.[3][7] That makes the market easiest to read as a bet on whether the airport station’s observed maximum lands inside the quoted band, not on general city weather.

For traders, the main catalysts are the **hour-by-hour forecast trend**, any changes in cloud cover or rainfall timing, and the final observed maximum from the airport station before the settlement window closes. Shenzhen is already near **28°C** in early observations, with high humidity and light winds, so the key question is whether the day heats up enough before cloud build-up or rain caps the peak.[1][12][17] Because the market resolves from a single station reading on Wunderground, airport-specific conditions matter more than broader city forecasts or nearby districts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.