Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 20 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current 0% crowd-implied probability for YES suggests traders believe the outcome is virtually impossible under the market’s current terms.

Historical data shows Shenzhen’s July highs typically reach 33–36°C, with rare spikes to 38°C or higher during intense heatwaves. A similar market on 12 July 2026 resolved to “38°C or higher” as NO, reflecting the city’s consistent pattern of staying below that threshold in mid-summer [1]. This precedent frames the current 0% probability as a rational assessment rather than an outlier, given that even extreme summer days in Shenzhen rarely breach 38°C.

Traders should monitor the daily Wunderground history page for the Bao’an station, as settlement depends solely on its recorded maximum for that day. No announcements or schedules influence the outcome—only the raw temperature reading. The key dependency is the reliability of the Wunderground dataset, which aggregates official station data; any gap or error in that feed could delay resolution, though the source is widely trusted for historical weather records.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.