Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the hottest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport on 24 July, and the market will settle on whichever Celsius range contains that day’s peak reading from Wunderground’s station history. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays if the event lands in the specified outcome band, while a **NO** share pays if it does not; here, the pricing is effectively asking traders to map the day’s maximum into a temperature bucket rather than guess the exact number.

A 0% YES price signals that the crowd sees the target range as extremely unlikely, but on a late-July Shenzhen temperature market that should be read cautiously rather than literally. July is one of Shenzhen’s hottest and wettest months, with typical highs around 32°C, warm nights near 27°C, and frequent rainfall, so the key question is usually not whether it gets warm, but whether cloud, rain and sea-breeze effects keep the airport station below the chosen band or allow a brief spike above it. [1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s actual weather sequence, especially any thunderstorm timing, cloud cover and afternoon heating, all of which can shift the maximum temperature at the airport station. There is no special policy announcement or scheduled release to watch; instead, the market depends on the live weather pattern feeding into the single official source used for settlement, so the most relevant developments are hourly forecast updates, radar trends and any sudden convective rain affecting the airport area. [1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.