Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 25 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the peak temperature lands within a specific bracket—for instance, if you hold a YES share for "32–33°C", you profit if that range contains the day's maximum. A NO share is the inverse: it pays out if the temperature settles outside that range. The settlement will draw from historical weather data published on Weather Underground for the airport station, making the outcome verifiable and objective once the day passes.

Shenzhen's July temperatures are remarkably consistent year on year. Historical records show that peak daily temperatures in late July typically cluster between 31 and 34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on which temperature bracket is being priced, or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish a baseline. Comparable markets on summer temperatures in southern Chinese cities have generally resolved within their historical norms, though tropical systems can introduce volatility in the weeks preceding settlement.

The primary catalyst affecting this outcome is the monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during July 2026. The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts by mid-July, which could shift expectations if anomalous weather is anticipated. Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure systems in early July will offer traders early signals about whether conditions favour above-average or below-average heat on the 25th.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.